Brexit not so bad

1 November 2016

I have lost count of the newspaper articles reporting that perhaps Brexit is not a disaster after all.  The new optimism seems to be based on two factors. Firstly an understandable desire not to talk the UK down and secondly a rather more mysterious reasoning that nothing awful has happened and so all the doomsayers were wrong.  Well what a surprise! BREXIT HAS NOT YET HAPPENED! Citing evidence from the stock markets and currency exchange rates does not really count as these go up and down whenever Mark Carney sneezes. The fundamental truth is that while we will survive (even Yemen and Haiti survive – survival is not a high bar) we will be less significant on our own, have less power and less influence. Far from taking back control we may come to depend on the kindness of strangers and in international relationships kindness is usually in short supply. We will probably be poorer and have to accept more restrictions and worse trade deals being imposed on us. The immigration issue is likely to recede not because we have control of our borders but because we are less attractive as a final destination.  And then what happens when we can’t get enough workers? What will happen to the NHS and care homes and agriculture and Universities?  We rely on migrant workers across many sectors.  The economy would have to contract.  We are looking at getting poorer for many decades.  And on top of all this Scotland may leave us and who could blame them. Brexiteers want control, well so do Scottish nationalists.